BUS107: Sing Mask is a Local Enterprise that Manufactures Surgical Face Masks: Quantitative Methods Assignment, SUSS, Singapore

Question 1

Sing Mask is a local enterprise that manufactures surgical face masks that are sold locally as well as exported to the region. Due to a forecasted surge in demand for the next 3 years, Sing Mask decides to make its operations non-stop with a production line that runs 24 hours a day and every day throughout the whole year, including public holidays.

Now is the last week of December and you are the Operations Manager overseeing manpower planning. Sing Mask’s Sales Director has provided the following monthly demand (each unit is equivalent to a box of 2000 pieces of face mask) for the next 3 years:

January: 800 units of demand

February: 600 units of demand

March: 800 units of demand

April: 1000 units of demand

May: 1200 units of demand

Jun: 1000 units of demand

July: 1100 units of demand

August: 900 units of demand

September: 800 units of demand

October: 1000 units of demand

November: 700 units of demand

December: 800 units of demand

Assume that demand is 800 units in January each year, demand is 600 units in February each year, etc. Further, demand must be met by the end of a month, e.g., the demand of 800 units must be met by the end of January, the demand of 600 units must be met by the end of February, etc.

Face mask production is relatively a low-technology type of operation and the main costs for the business are the storage cost and manpower cost.

Given its non-stop operation and the need to make manpower planning simpler, Sing Mask offers its workers 1 month of paid leave for working 11 months consecutively (they will still be given rest days but they cannot take any annual leave). For example, a worker working in the month of January to November will enjoy 1 month of paid leave in December. Assume that there are no fires or hires during the three years. Based on the historical data, a worker can produce up to 20 units of face mask in a month and is paid a salary of $1,800 per month.

Storage cost is incurred for any excess units produced that are above the monthly demand and estimated at $120 per unit of production. Any excess inventory at end of the year will be donated to local hospitals as part of Sing Mask’s corporate social responsibility thus there will not be any inventory at the end of December each year.

• Determine an LP model to minimise Sing Mask’s annual cost (storage and manpower cost) while meeting all monthly demands. List any other assumption(s) you have made in your formulation.
• Solve the LP problem by using Microsoft Excel.
• Consider the following scenarios and comment on the optimal solution based on the Solver Sensitivity Report:
• Scenario 1: Sing Mask Board of Directors has approved a special allowance of $1,000 to be provided to all workers who work during the month of January in view of the festive season around this period.
• Scenario 2: The HR Director received a notice from the labour union that workers in the manufacturing sector should be provided with a minimum salary of $2,200 per month.

Question 2

Singapore is known to be a leading centre for ship repair, and its other key activities include the building of marine vessels and offshore structures, vessel design and engineering, and marine equipment and services. You have just joined a local bank as an analyst covering the international trade desk. You have been tasked to provide a forecast of vessel tonnage up to the year-end of 2021.

Your supervisor has provided you with the monthly gross tonnage from July 2000 to June 2020. Your forecasted result will provide insights into the economic pulse of this sector which will have implications on the line of credit provided to businesses in this sector.

• Recommend an appropriate time series model to forecast the monthly gross tonnage up to December 2021 with justifications on the periods (i.e. whether you use all the data provided or only a part of it) and the forecasting model you decide to use. (You are not required to perform any forecasting here).
• Determine the monthly forecast for gross tonnage up to December 2021. Show the steps in calculating the forecast.